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Showing posts from January, 2026

Introduction: Quantum Security and Peace Studies

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Quantum security refers to the use and implications of quantum technologies—such as quantum computing, quantum key distribution (QKD), and quantum sensing—to protect information, communications, and critical infrastructure. It emerges from the “second quantum revolution,” which applies the principles of quantum mechanics to practical technological systems with transformative security implications. Peace studies, by contrast, is an interdisciplinary field concerned with the conditions for sustainable peace, conflict prevention, disarmament, and international cooperation, drawing on international relations theory, ethics, and security studies. The convergence of quantum security and peace studies has become increasingly salient as quantum technologies reshape global power structures. While these technologies offer new tools for verification, secure communication, and early warning in peacekeeping and arms control, they also introduce destabilizing risks, including cyber insec...

Nepal: Political, Social, and Electoral Snapshot (January 2026)

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Political situation: Nepal is in political flux following the September 2025 Gen Z–led protests, which began over a social media ban and evolved into wider demands for accountability and constitutional reform. The unrest exposed weaknesses in the 2015 Constitution, triggered violent clashes, and led to an interim government headed by former Chief Justice Sushila Karki. Public trust remains low, with critics accusing the interim leadership of failing to address corruption or prosecute protest-related violence. Politics has opened beyond traditional party elites, with business figures, journalists, influencers, and activists entering the arena, alongside a new party fielding LGBTIQ candidates. However, entrenched corruption scandals—especially involving senior figures like former PM KP Sharma Oli—continue to undermine credibility. International actors, notably India and the United States, are pressing for early elections as a path back to democratic stability. Social situ...

Thailand's Stockpile of Chinese Weapons

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Thailand, a U.S. treaty ally, has significantly increased its procurement of Chinese weapons over the past decade, including VT-4 tanks, VN-1 armored vehicles (with recent 2025–2026 follow-on deals worth ~1 billion baht), FK-3/FN-6 missiles, and the long-delayed S26T (Yuan-class) submarine (contract amended in 2025 for Chinese engines, delivery expected ~2028). Military Reasons - Cost-effectiveness — Chinese systems are 30–50% cheaper than Western equivalents, enabling faster modernization within limited budgets (~1.5% of GDP).   - Quick delivery & fewer restrictions — No stringent end-user agreements or delays common in U.S. sales.   - Diversification — Reduces over-reliance on U.S. hardware (e.g., F-16s) and improves border/maritime capabilities (e.g., amid 2025 Thai-Cambodian tensions). Recent Thai feedback highlights good quality and reliability in many systems. Political Reasons - Hedging & bamboo diplomacy — Balances U.S. alliance with deepe...

Recent Military Purge (January 2026)

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China’s ongoing military purge reached a critical point on 24 January 2026 with the announcement that General Zhang Youxia , Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), longtime ally of Xi Jinping , and fellow “princeling,” is under investigation for “grave violations of discipline and law.” At the same time, General Liu Zhenli , Chief of the CMC Joint Staff Department, was also targeted. While the purge has unfolded in waves since 2023—encompassing the Rocket Force scandal, two former defense ministers, He Weidong’s expulsion in October 2025, and multiple senior officers—Zhang’s downfall is unprecedented. He was Xi’s closest military confidant, retained his post beyond retirement age, and was one of the few senior PLA leaders with real combat experience from the 1979 Vietnam border war. Key Drivers Absolute loyalty: Xi is signaling that political reliability outweighs expertise or personal ties. Targeting a trusted “sworn brother” underscores that no on...

The Paradox of Victory: Why Thailand’s Border Ambitions Result in a Strategic Loss

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In the long-standing territorial disputes between Thailand and Cambodia, conventional military assessments often focus on troop movements and tactical positions. However, a deeper analysis suggests that the traditional definition of "winning" is obsolete. While Thailand may project military strength, the reality is a "total loss" scenario in which Thailand has sacrificed far more than Cambodia. By evaluating the conflict through the lenses of international law, economic opportunity costs, and national resilience, it becomes clear that Cambodia has emerged as the more strategic and moral victor. The Burden of Illegal Occupation To understand who "wins," we must first define the term. If winning is defined by the physical occupation of land along the borderline, that "victory" is a hollow one. Under modern international law, contested occupation is not an asset; it is a permanent diplomatic and legal burden. The International Court of J...

Negative Side Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Beyond Internet Scams and Chinese-Linked Criminal Networks

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Internet scamming and Chinese-linked criminal operations—particularly scam centers operating across Southeast Asia—are among the most visible harms associated with China’s outward economic expansion under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, these criminal activities represent only one dimension of a much broader set of negative consequences tied to the initiative. Launched in 2013, the BRI is a vast infrastructure and trade program spanning more than 150 countries. While often promoted as a development engine, it has drawn sustained criticism from institutions such as the World Bank, the Council on Foreign Relations, and numerous independent think tanks for its economic, environmental, social, and geopolitical risks. 1. Debt Sustainability and Economic Vulnerability A central concern is debt distress. Many BRI recipient countries have taken on large, opaque loans for infrastructure projects that generate limited economic returns. In several cases, this has resul...

Cambodia at an Economic Crossroads: Managing a Triple Shock in an Era of Rising Risk

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Cambodia at an Economic Crossroads: Managing a Triple Shock in an Era of Rising Risk Cambodia’s economy—once praised for its rapid post-pandemic rebound—is now under mounting strain from a convergence of global, regional, and domestic pressures. Economist Jayant Menon has described this convergence as a “triple whammy”: external geopolitical shocks, regional disruptions, and deep-seated internal vulnerabilities. By early 2026, these pressures have intensified, growth expectations have been revised downward, and structural risks have sharpened—particularly following the renewed Cambodia–Thailand border conflict. This analysis builds on Menon’s framework while integrating recent economic trends to assess Cambodia’s risks, constraints, and strategic options as it navigates a period of heightened uncertainty. The Triple Shock: Global, Regional, and Domestic Pressures Collide At the global level, Cambodia faces rising protectionism and deteriorating trade conditions. Increased U...

Report: Youth Substance Abuse and Public Safety in Cambodia

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Subject: Current Trends, Evidence-Based Analysis, and Policy Challenges 1. Executive Summary The intersection of drug addiction and youth violence is one of Cambodia’s most pressing social challenges. While official usage statistics among minors remain relatively low, environmental exposure is nearly universal. Substance abuse serves as a primary driver for gang formation and violent crime, yet the national response remains heavily skewed toward punitive enforcement rather than health-based rehabilitation. 2. Prevalence and Environmental Exposure Contemporary data suggests that Cambodian youth live in environments where narcotics are highly visible, creating a "normalization" of drug culture. Awareness vs. Usage: Among youth aged 13–18, 92% report high awareness of illicit drugs, and 80% have witnessed drug use or trafficking within their own communities. Direct Impact: Approximately 4% of youth report being introduced to drugs, with 3% admitting to active use. Re...

Appeal for the World Commitment for Justice

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One may choose to align with a particular major power for many reasons. But for a small country like Cambodia, our primary motivation has never been to serve as a pawn in the rivalry of great powers. Our goal is simple and fundamental: survival. Any country that criticizes such a choice without understanding our circumstances fails to grasp how the world truly works. Small and powerless nations do not have the luxury of grand strategies or global influence. We do not expect other countries to take our side—Cambodia is far too small to offer the strategic benefits that larger nations can provide. What we hope for instead is fairness: that countries act with a sense of justice when dealing with us. If the international community can approach small nations with fairness and humanity, then even the most vulnerable countries can enjoy a measure of peace, just like everyone else.

The Resilience of International Law: Why the System Persists Beyond the Courtroom

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A common misconception is that international law begins and ends with the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In reality, the global legal order is a decentralized ecosystem built on state consent, reciprocal interests, and centuries of customary practice. Even in a hypothetical scenario where the ICJ or similar judicial bodies were paralyzed by political deadlock or a lack of enforcement power, the framework of international law would remain not only relevant but essential. 1. The Tripartite Foundation of International Law International law does not derive its authority from a single "supreme court." Instead, as outlined in Article 38 of the ICJ Statute, it is rooted in several independent sources: Treaties and Conventions: These are formal contracts between states (e.g., the UN Charter or the Law of the Sea). Their validity is based on the principle of pacta sunt servanda (agreements must be kept), which binds states regardless of whether a court is active. Cu...

The Urgent Need for Structural Reform: What—and How?

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Structural reform has become one of the most discussed—and most misunderstood—topics in Cambodia today. I do not intend to debate specific policy positions or promote any particular reform agenda. Instead, I offer a reflection drawn from experience—one that may be relevant to the current national conversation. My central argument is simple: structural reform cannot rely on good ideas alone . It must also be practical, context-sensitive, and correctly timed . Without these elements, even the most morally appealing theories can produce damaging and unintended consequences. When Good Theory Fails in Practice In the early 1990s, I made a mistake that continues to shape how I think about reform. I helped establish a development NGO inspired by a widely respected theory at the time: “putting the last first.” The idea was to prioritize assistance for the poorest families in a community. Many international donors strongly supported this approach, and on paper it appeared ethic...

Why China supports autocracy instead of Gen. Z?

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Short answer: China does not oppose Gen Z as people; it opposes what Gen Z–led movements represent politically —unpredictability, horizontal organizing, and challenges to centralized control. Autocracy, by contrast, offers predictability. Here’s the logic, clearly and directly. 1. China prioritizes stability over legitimacy China’s foreign policy is built on one overriding principle: regime stability . Autocratic governments can guarantee contracts , protect infrastructure, and suppress unrest. Gen Z movements tend to demand systemic change , transparency, and accountability—all of which introduce uncertainty. From Beijing’s perspective, a stable autocrat is safer than a popular uprising , even if the uprising is morally justified. 2. Gen Z movements threaten China’s own system China is governed by a one-party authoritarian model. Supporting youth-led democratic revolutions abroad would: Legitimize similar movements inside China Undermine the CCP’s claim that...

Why Thailand is leaning towards China now?

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Thailand’s tilt toward China is less a sudden “switch” and more a pragmatic recalibration shaped by politics, security needs, and regional realities. Several factors come together: 1. Fallout from the 2014 military coup After the 2014 coup, the United States downgraded relations , suspended some military assistance, and publicly criticized Thailand’s political direction. For Bangkok—especially the military—this was read as conditional and unreliable support . China, by contrast, did not criticize the coup and continued engagement without political conditions. That made Beijing an attractive alternative partner. 2. Defense diversification and fewer strings attached Thailand deliberately moved to diversify its arms suppliers : Chinese weapons were cheaper, delivered faster , and came with no democracy or human-rights conditions . This suited a military-led or military-influenced government. Cooperation expanded beyond purchases into joint exercises, training, and a...